Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-16 6.799327e-05 0.000081 0.000095 0.000112 0.000130 0.000150 0.000173
2025-03-23 5.119380e-05 0.000068 0.000088 0.000112 0.000141 0.000173 0.000212
2025-03-30 4.152710e-05 0.000060 0.000082 0.000111 0.000146 0.000187 0.000238
2025-04-06 3.284037e-05 0.000052 0.000076 0.000108 0.000149 0.000198 0.000260
2025-04-13 2.751079e-05 0.000047 0.000072 0.000107 0.000154 0.000211 0.000284
2025-04-20 2.148669e-05 0.000040 0.000065 0.000102 0.000152 0.000215 0.000298
2025-04-27 1.813984e-05 0.000036 0.000063 0.000102 0.000156 0.000226 0.000319
2025-05-04 1.544716e-05 0.000033 0.000060 0.000102 0.000160 0.000237 0.000342
2025-05-11 1.372125e-05 0.000031 0.000060 0.000104 0.000168 0.000252 0.000369
2025-05-18 1.202764e-05 0.000030 0.000059 0.000105 0.000174 0.000266 0.000394
2025-05-25 9.592058e-06 0.000026 0.000054 0.000101 0.000172 0.000269 0.000405
2025-06-01 7.660531e-06 0.000023 0.000050 0.000098 0.000171 0.000272 0.000417
2025-06-08 6.136642e-06 0.000020 0.000048 0.000097 0.000174 0.000284 0.000442
2025-06-15 5.001495e-06 0.000019 0.000047 0.000098 0.000180 0.000298 0.000470
2025-06-22 3.930578e-06 0.000017 0.000044 0.000097 0.000183 0.000308 0.000493
2025-06-29 2.901972e-06 0.000014 0.000041 0.000094 0.000182 0.000314 0.000511
2025-07-06 2.268571e-06 0.000013 0.000040 0.000093 0.000186 0.000325 0.000535
2025-07-13 1.505368e-06 0.000011 0.000036 0.000089 0.000182 0.000325 0.000544
2025-07-20 1.137437e-06 0.000010 0.000034 0.000088 0.000185 0.000336 0.000568
2025-07-27 8.608196e-07 0.000009 0.000033 0.000088 0.000189 0.000347 0.000594
2025-08-03 7.026601e-07 0.000008 0.000033 0.000090 0.000197 0.000364 0.000627
2025-08-10 5.477096e-07 0.000008 0.000033 0.000091 0.000202 0.000379 0.000658
2025-08-17 3.272957e-07 0.000007 0.000030 0.000088 0.000200 0.000380 0.000669